hit counters

Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Jan. 2003 report warned Iraq war could lead to insurgency, terror

Douglas Jehl and David E. Sanger report in the New York Times:

"The same intelligence unit that produced a gloomy report in July about the prospect of growing instability in Iraq warned the Bush administration about the potential costly consequences of an American-led invasion two months before the war began, government officials said Monday.

The estimate came in two classified reports prepared for President Bush in January 2003 by the National Intelligence Council, an independent group that advises the director of central intelligence. The assessments predicted that an American-led invasion of Iraq would increase support for political Islam and would result in a deeply divided Iraqi society prone to violent internal conflict.

One of the reports also warned of a possible insurgency against the new Iraqi government or American-led forces, saying that rogue elements from Saddam Hussein's government could work with existing terrorist groups or act independently to wage guerrilla warfare, the officials said. The assessments also said a war would increase sympathy across the Islamic world for some terrorist objectives, at least in the short run, the officials said.

The contents of the two assessments had not been previously disclosed. They were described by the officials after two weeks in which the White House had tried to minimize the council's latest report, which was prepared this summer and read by senior officials early this month.

Last week, Mr. Bush dismissed the latest intelligence reports, saying its authors were 'just guessing' about the future, though he corrected himself later, calling it an 'estimate.'"

Story continues here.


At 8:45 PM, Blogger Kitzi said...

Gosh, it's hard for me to believe anyone could support Bush. Sure hope the polls are wrong.

At 11:25 PM, Blogger Outrage said...

I'm not a statistics expert, so I can't fully comment on the accuracy of current polling methodology. But I can say one thing: most polls focus on "likely voters"-voters who have already registered and who have a track record of voting in previous elections.

This year there are massive get-out-the-vote campaigns going on across the country. I think turnout is going to be higher than what the pollsters expected. My hope is that this higher turnout swings the election towards Kerry. In any case, my recommendation to everyone out there is to let November 2 decide the election, and not any preliminaries.

At 11:45 PM, Blogger Outrage said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

At 12:48 AM, Blogger Outrage said...

Great Gods at the Blogger/Google family! Please stop double-posting my comments. Thanks.


Post a Comment

<< Home